Vancouver Island’s glaciers are disappearing – and quick.
About 40 of the ice packets exist – averaging a couple of third of a kilometer alongside the island’s lengthy ridge – however none of them will final for much longer, says one glaciologist.
“They’re retreating earlier than our eyes,” says Brian Menounos, professor of geosciences on the College of Northern BC who has studied glaciers on the BC coast.
Menounos estimates that the entire island’s ice packets shall be passed by mid-century, together with the long-lasting Comox Glacier, a logo of the valley that slowly however certainly recedes 12 months after 12 months.
Lately, rocky foothills have appeared, with a naked peak rising from the middle of the glacier mass. Uncovered rock absorbs warmth, accelerates melting and at last splinters the ice pack.
“Quickly,” mentioned Menounos, “it simply will not be there anymore.”
Glacier melting is accelerating as a result of island glaciers are initially small, and up to date occasions like that summer season’s warmth dome and extended temperatures above 30 ° C have pushed their demise rapidly.
However “man-made local weather change” is the true perpetrator, Menounos mentioned, as elevated ranges of greenhouse gases within the environment change climate patterns and temperatures.
He says that rising floor temperatures and modifications in precipitation – much less snow and extra precipitation in crucial winter months – don’t permit the Comox Glacier to replenish its ice and retailer water.
And so it continues to shrink in space and mass.
Retired lumberjack Fred Fern has been taking pictures of the Comox Glacier yearly since 2013, and the receding ice mass may be clearly seen within the photos.
Fern has calculated with Google Earth that the Comox Glacier has misplaced 4.5 meters in altitude after the warmth of this summer season – and since his first photograph in 2013, as much as 120 meters in altitude.
“The loss this summer season was the worst I’ve ever seen,” mentioned the 64-year-old, who has lived in Comox Valley since he was 15. “That’s the vertical foot loss – thickness. It not solely melts on the outer edges, however now additionally from the within out with uncovered rock. “
He mentioned the Comox Glacier was “virtually unrecognizable” from years previous, including that the realm between Mount Albert Edward and Comox used to have 25 smaller glaciers however is now decreased to 4 or 5.
“Local weather change, no query about it,” he mentioned.
A research by the College of Northern BC discovered that the glacier floor on Vancouver Island decreased from 18.2 sq. kilometers to 14.5 sq. kilometers between 1985 and 2005, a lack of 20 p.c. The losses since then are estimated to be a lot larger.
The typical dimension of the island’s glaciers was about 0.3 sq. kilometers, a lot smaller than the provincial common of two.11 sq. kilometers.
British Columbia has 17,000 glaciers, and most of them are on the verge of extinction.
Glaciologists estimate that 22 billion cubic meters of water are misplaced to the province’s glaciers annually. That is sufficient to fill BC Place Stadium 8,300 occasions.
Menounos mentioned the hyperlink between rising carbon dioxide ranges and melting ice is obvious, as lots of the province’s glaciers are unlikely to outlive till the tip of the century.
Winter may be colder and get quite a lot of snow. However the long-term development is one-way – steady melting.
“Think about strolling up a sand dune. With each step you’re taking ahead, you slip one step again, ”mentioned Menounos.
In a current research co-authored by Menounos, researchers discovered that 21 p.c of sea degree rise is because of glacial soften.
The lack of this sluggish trickle of ice-cold water in mountain streams is prone to have ramifications for BC salmon populations and the net of life that depends on the cooling results of glacial runoff.
“The change up to now 150 years, a few of it so quick that we have not seen it in 10,000 years,” mentioned Johannes Koch, a glaciologist at Kwantlen Polytechnic College who has spent the previous 20 years tracing glaciers within the Garibaldi Examine Park and the Pemberton Ice Area. “Most ecosystems are good at adjusting to issues, however they take time.”
Individuals too. By August, a couple of quarter of the water in mountain rivers comes from glacial soften in lots of BC watersheds, together with the Decrease Mainland and the Okanagan. If we lose them in the summertime, Koch mentioned it could be dangerous timing for agriculture.
Menounos mentioned this was one of many results of the glaciers’ disappearance: a lack of buffering in late summer season in opposition to hotter, drier durations.
Within the Comox Valley, the glacier helps fill Lake Comox, the supply of consuming water for round 50,000 valley residents.
The watershed is 461 sq. kilometers and extends to the highest of the Comox Glacier and the mountains round Lake Comox. Throughout the watershed there are a number of sub-basins named for the streams and rivers that move by way of them, together with Higher Puntledge, Cruikshank, Boston Creek, and Perseverance Creek.
Water that hits the bottom someplace within the catchment space of Lake Comox as snow or rain finally flows into Lake Comox.
The reservoir is managed by BC Hydro to generate electrical energy. Spokesman Stephen Watson mentioned the glacier makes up solely a small proportion of the water within the lake, saying a lot of the quantity comes from rainfall and snowmelt.
Nevertheless, he famous that 4 consecutive years of drought had dramatic results on the glacier and the utility continues to mannequin the operation of its hydropower plant within the space with detailed forecasts.
Fern fears that the “overbuilding” within the Comox Valley will finally put the water provide underneath higher stress as local weather change continues to subside.
He mentioned folks ought to concentrate on ailing river techniques like Columbia and Colorado which are being depleted by overdevelopment within the western United States, and mentioned water and local weather change ought to be essential issues when increasing communities.
“There shall be water shortage … we do not want a disappearing glacier to see local weather change,” mentioned Fern. “Lytton burned to the bottom this summer season, 500 folks died in warmth waves … who debated it … I simply do not know.”
On the mainland, Doug Washer has been guiding folks within the mountains for 3 a long time. Since 2013, which means flying in vacationers to discover the electrical blue ice cave of the Pemberton Icefield.
“What we’re doing in these ice caves is taking good pictures. However from a pacesetter’s perspective, we document modifications over time, ”he says. “There’s nothing higher than watching local weather change than sitting there and watching an ice dice soften.”
Washer says his staff has documented a mean vertical ice lack of 26 toes every summer season. That made them transfer to larger altitudes.
“We simply cannot journey by way of there with visitors. The crevasses are too huge, sinkholes have opened. It is simply too harmful, ”explains Washer. “It modified so rapidly.”
Mike Douglas recollects snowboarding the Horstman Glacier on Blackcomb Mountain for the primary time in 1988 when it regarded like there was “one thing that can all the time be there.”
As knowledgeable skier, Douglas hit his tooth on the glacier within the first half of the Nineteen Nineties. Again then he noticed as much as 2,000 folks and 20 summer season ski camps on the glacier on daily basis.
“Ahead 33 years, this glacier is nearly so distant that you simply needed to take away the tow bar final 12 months. It is like a bowl of milk, ”he says. “That is one thing that occurred proper earlier than my eyes.”
– With recordsdata from Stefan Labbé, Glacier Media
dkloster@timescolonist.com
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