The Canucks have made some essential modifications in protection, however will they be higher defensively within the 2021/22 season?
Prior to now week, the Vancouver Canucks have fully revamped their defenses.
In all equity, their defenses wanted an overhaul. In keeping with the hockey analytics web site Pure Stat Trick, the Canucks allowed essentially the most scoring alternatives within the NHL by a large margin. Even in the event you ignored possibilities, solely two groups allowed extra photographs on objective final season.
Clearly one thing needed to change and Canuck’s GM Jim Benning was as aggressive as he promised. Alex Edler, Nate Schmidt and Jordie Benn have left final season, as have defenders Jalen Chatfield and Brogan Rafferty. Of their place, Benning swapped for Oliver Ekman-Larsson and signed Tucker Poolman and Luke Schenn in addition to defenders like Brad Hunt and Brady Keeper.
They even added Brad Shaw to the teaching employees to enhance their protection system.
Because of this, the Canucks’ protection might be very completely different. The query is, will it get higher, particularly relating to stopping photographs and getting scoring possibilities.
“As a six-man unit, I believe we’re higher.”
There was a transparent philosophy behind the defenders being acquired and signed by Benning, together with the signing of Travis Hamonic. The Canucks wished a bit extra dimension within the backend, wished a stability of proper and left photographs, and wished to remain at house to enrich their extra offensive defenders.
“We wished to get greater again there, extra bodily,” Benning instructed the media on Wednesday. “On the left with OEL and Quinn [Hughes] and possibly Jack Rathbone, if he has a superb camp – he performed properly for us on the finish of the yr – we’ve got some mobility, you already know, a few guys who can come again and put the puck on maintain.
“I believe we tried to seek out a few guys that match their fashion of play on the fitting and now we’ve got some bodily guys who we predict are good defensive gamers to help.”
Benning clearly believes the modifications he and his employees made have improved protection.
“As a six-man unit, I believe we’re higher,” stated Benning. “I believe we’ve got a superb combine of fellows who can come again and alter puck-up ice cream, with extra guys staying at house, greater, extra bodily.”
The numbers aren’t good
It is laborious to say how a Protection Corps will play out collectively, particularly one with a number of new faces and presumably a rookie in Rathbone. Nonetheless, we are able to take a look at how every participant has fared prior to now.
The massive query after I take a look at the Canucks protection is who will the matchup or shutdown pairing be. Who will play the robust minutes in opposition to the perfect gamers within the NHL like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon? How are the Canucks going to stave off the sky-high numbers of photographs and scoring alternatives they’ve given up lately?
I’ve seemed on the 230 NHL defenders who’ve performed 5v5 for at the very least 950 minutes over the previous three seasons. I selected 950 minutes with the intention to embody Schenn, who performed a bit over 985 minutes, within the pattern.
The place do the Canucks defenders stand for subsequent season on some key defensive stats over that interval?
Defensive Charge Stats for the Canucks Defenders 2021-22 through NaturalStatTrick.com
All dates are at 5-on-5 and are adjusted for the rating and venue. The info comes from Pure Stat Trick. Here’s a transient glossary:
- SA / 60 = Pictures per 60 minutes; You recognize, photographs on objective.
- SCA / 60 = Scoring possibilities in opposition to per 60 minutes; Pure Stat Trick calculates the possibilities to attain in accordance with the taking pictures place and whether or not a shot try is taken into account outdoors of the frenzy or as a rebound.
- HDCA / 60 = Excessive danger alternatives per 60 minutes; Shot makes an attempt from essentially the most harmful areas of the ice.
- xGA / 60 = anticipated targets conceded per 60 minutes; calculated by giving every shot try a chance of scoring based mostly on shot place, shot angle, shot kind and components comparable to rush or rebound photographs.
I’ve additionally indicated the place Jack Rathbone and Olli Juolevi would rank, though the small pattern dimension ought to provoke warning for every of them in drawing their conclusions.
All in all, not a fairly image. The Canucks’ putative high six in protection all rank within the backside half of every of these defensive stats. In truth, for essentially the most half, they’re all within the backside third.
Ekman-Larsson and Poolman fought defensively
Let’s focus for a second on Canucks’ two most essential protection acquisitions: Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Tucker Poolman.
Ekman-Larsson is on the backside of the league relating to high-risk possibilities. That coincides with its remoted impression warmth map from HockeyViz, which reveals a purple sea in entrance of its personal internet. He simply hasn’t been good at house plate within the defensive zone the previous few years.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson remoted impression warmth map through HockeyViz.com
What’s worrying is that Poolman is even worse. Amongst 230 defenders, Poolman ranks 220th within the high-risk possibilities fee in opposition to.
That is significantly worrying as it’s solely attainable that Ekman-Larsson and Poolman might match up and can be anticipated to play a match-up position.
After taking on Ekman-Larsson, Benning stated he believes the veteran would be the workforce’s “primary defender” and “a match-up man who performs in opposition to the opposite workforce’s high strains”.
Head coach Travis Inexperienced has averted utilizing Tyler Myers in a match-up position, which is comprehensible – his numbers are by far the worst within the pattern above. Meaning both Poolman or Travis Hamonic will workforce up with Ekman-Larsson and it’s probably that they’ll begin the season with Hamonic paired with Hughes.
When Benning talked about Poolman, he introduced up Chris Tanev, noting that the lack of Tanev had harm the workforce.
“We predict that in Tucker’s sport, Tucker has one thing to do with the place he is cellular, he is lengthy, he has a superb stick, he is a superb defensive participant and he can play with one in every of our puck movers within the backend and complement it Recreation, ”stated Benning.
It’s worrying that the numbers merely don’t help this declare.
It is not concerning the high quality of the competitors
In relation to these defensive stats, we’ve got to speak about one essential factor: the standard of the competitors. It is in all probability one of many first issues that involves thoughts, particularly while you see the 2 defenders who acquired the Canucks who high this record: Brad Hunt and Luke Schenn.
I asterisked Rathbone and Juolevi due to the small pattern dimension, however Hunt deserves an asterisk too. Hunt achieved distinctive defensive outcomes however performed so whereas taking part in very sheltered minutes within the third pair with the Minnesota Wild.
Nonetheless, it is good to know that Hunt can sustain in these minutes. If the Canucks have accidents, he can skillfully fill within the backside pair.
Schenn additionally confirmed that he can defend the highest of the online, with strong placings each with dangerous possibilities and with anticipated targets conceded. However these outcomes principally got here once we performed closely protected minutes within the third pairing for the Tampa Bay Lightning powerhouse.
It is sufficient to make you marvel if the poor outcomes of the remainder of the Canucks protection naturally got here from taking part in in opposition to some robust competitors, however that’s not the case. Lots of the gamers on the high of this leaderboard play very troublesome minutes for his or her groups, comparable to Jared Spurgeon, MacKenzie Weegar and Charlie McAvoy.
These defenders play these robust minutes as a result of they’re so good at limiting odds and counter photographs.
It is not simply concerning the high quality of the workforce round them. For instance, each Alex Goligoski and Jakob Chychrun confirmed considerably higher defensive numbers than Ekman-Larsson on the Arizona Coyotes, whereas going through more durable competitors.
In any case, it’s not sufficient to dismiss these numbers as the end result of the sport in opposition to robust competitors. The Canucks want defenders who can play in opposition to robust competitors and restrict their probabilities of scoring. When these defenders shine so brightly in robust competitors, that is a nasty factor.
Moreover, it is not even true.
Not one of the defenders encountered high strains above common right here prior to now season. As talked about earlier, Hunt and Schenn had been each considerably protected. Hughes and Ekman-Larsson had been barely under common within the entrance row final season and Hamonic, Myers and Poolman had been across the league common.
In different phrases, all of those defenders had under common competitors and nonetheless had photographs and possibilities to attain.
For the Canucks, the matchup position was given to Alex Edler and Nate Schmidt, who had been confronted with very troublesome competitors. Regardless of these robust minutes, Edler and Schmidt had the bottom fee of high-danger possibilities among the many Canucks defenders final season. It will not be a simple minute to interchange it.
Is the entire greater than the elements?
There’s in fact the chance that every one of this may work out for the Canucks. Generally in sport the entire is basically greater than the sum of its elements.
Maybe Ekman-Larsson will thrive in a brand new setting and do extra like the perfect defender he has been prior to now. Possibly Hamonic will settle in with a extra regular offseason and an honest coaching camp. With the fitting companions, the Canucks defenders might click on and discover the chemistry they should play a strong protection.
The Canucks might even hope that with their improved group of strikers they might spend much more time within the offensive zone and fewer time caught in their very own zone.
Then there’s Jack Rathbone’s wildcard. He struggled defensively in his eight video games final season, however got here into the line-up in a troublesome state of affairs on the finish of the season when the Caanucks had little or no to play.
If Rathbone will be stronger defensively than his little rehearsal final season confirmed, he might assist the Canucks protection immensely.
However that is so much that should go proper for the Canucks to enhance defensively over the subsequent season. There’s trigger for concern that Thatcher Demko and Jaroslav Halak might should be the other way up to maintain the Canucks in play.
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